A United Ireland Referendum Must Not Turn Into 'Another Brexit', Analysts Caution

A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to learn from the other's arguments."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."